If I were a major television network covering an event (which I am not), I think that the sampling of votes reported are diverse enough in location and complete enough in reporting (about half of all conferences) that some of the elections' results can be predicted (called) with reasonable accuracy at this time.
The worldwide amendments have been defeated emphatically, and it appears as if there may even be a 2/3 majority voting against these amendments, and they need a 2/3 majority for. Statistically, over 90% of the remaining votes must be in favor of these amendments to swing the total to a supermajority in favor. Based on the sampling reported, this election is essentially over and defeated.
In all likelihood (based on past results), the international annual conferences will likely vote more conservatively than the US conferences. Amendment 1, though not as definite as the worldwide amendments, is doing very poorly in gaining enough support in the US to obtain a supermajority. I think that this is defeated, though there is a very slight possibility that this could still be approved. The outlook is very unlikely based on the current tally.
It is possible that amendment 19 will pass with the supermajority, but it is still too close to call.
Non-controversial amendments such as #8 and #32 will almost certainly receive the 2/3 majority needed, as they are not being opposed openly by recognized activists from any group within the denomination. Some people have traditionally voted "no" to any changes to the constitution, regardless of content, as a statement to maintain the status quo and respect the founding documents of the denomination.
More as it develops..... I apologize for not having more info on some of the minor amendments which are not of as great interest. Some conferences aren't reporting these results in their press releases.
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